Electronic Journal of Polish Agricultural Universities (EJPAU) founded by all Polish Agriculture Universities presents original papers and review articles relevant to all aspects of agricultural sciences. It is target for persons working both in science and industry,regulatory agencies or teaching in agricultural sector. Covered by IFIS Publishing (Food Science and Technology Abstracts), ELSEVIER Science - Food Science and Technology Program, CAS USA (Chemical Abstracts), CABI Publishing UK and ALPSP (Association of Learned and Professional Society Publisher - full membership). Presented in the Master List of Thomson ISI.
2005
Volume 8
Issue 4
Topic:
Agricultural Engineering
ELECTRONIC
JOURNAL OF
POLISH
AGRICULTURAL
UNIVERSITIES
Trojanowska M. , Małopolski J. 2005. FORECASTING OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN RURAL AREAS. PART I. APPLICATION OF FUZZY MODELS, EJPAU 8(4), #16.
Available Online: http://www.ejpau.media.pl/volume8/issue4/abs-16.html

FORECASTING OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN RURAL AREAS. PART I. APPLICATION OF FUZZY MODELS

Małgorzata Trojanowska1, Jerzy Małopolski2
1 Department of Power Engineering and Agricultural Processes Automation, Agricultural University of Cracow, Poland
2 Department of Engineering and IT in Agriculture, Agricultural University of Cracow, Poland

 

ABSTRACT



The article analyzes applicability of Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy models for forecasting monthly demand for electric energy among recipients in rural areas. In particular, quality of forecasts was evaluated, made on the basis of two prepared linear fuzzy models differing with the number of fuzzy rules. It was concluded that forecasts calculated on the basis of both these models can be considered permissible, and the models can be used for prediction of monthly demand for electricity, whereas greater accuracy was achieved by forecasts made on the basis of the model described with four fuzzy rules.

Key words: electric energy, forecast, fuzzy sets.

Małgorzata Trojanowska
Department of Power Engineering and Agricultural Processes Automation, Agricultural University of Cracow, Poland
Balicka Str. 116B
30-149 Kraków, Poland
email: malgorzata.trojanowska@ur.krakow.pl

Jerzy Małopolski
Department of Engineering and IT in Agriculture,
Agricultural University of Cracow, Poland
104 Balicka Street, 30-149 Cracow, Poland
phone: (+48 12) 66 24 688
email: malopolski@ar.krakow.pl

Responses to this article, comments are invited and should be submitted within three months of the publication of the article. If accepted for publication, they will be published in the chapter headed 'Discussions' and hyperlinked to the article.

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