EJPAU 2014. Szczepanik M. , Domagała D. MODELING AND FORECASTING RYE PRICE USING ARIMA MODEL

Electronic Journal of Polish Agricultural Universities (EJPAU) founded by all Polish Agriculture Universities presents original papers and review articles relevant to all aspects of agricultural sciences. It is target for persons working both in science and industry,regulatory agencies or teaching in agricultural sector. Covered by IFIS Publishing (Food Science and Technology Abstracts), ELSEVIER Science - Food Science and Technology Program, CAS USA (Chemical Abstracts), CABI Publishing UK and ALPSP (Association of Learned and Professional Society Publisher - full membership). Presented in the Master List of Thomson ISI.

2014
Volume 17
Issue 4

Topic:

Economics

ELECTRONIC
JOURNAL OF
POLISH
AGRICULTURAL
UNIVERSITIES

Szczepanik M. , Domagała D. 2014. MODELING AND FORECASTING RYE PRICE USING ARIMA MODEL, EJPAU 17(4), #03.
Available Online: http://www.ejpau.media.pl/volume17/issue4/abs-03.html

MODELING AND FORECASTING RYE PRICE USING ARIMA MODEL

Małgorzata Szczepanik, Dorota Domagała
Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Life Sciences, Lublin, Poland

ABSTRACT

The study presents modeling of human-consumption rye price in Poland in the period: Aug 2010 to Oct 2013. ARIMA techniques are used to analyze the time series. ARIMA(1,1,1) with intervention model was applied and tested using the Box-Jenkins methodology (identification, estimation and diagnostic). The data were collected from the website of Polish Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. Diagnostics, calculations and forecasting were conducted using STATISTICA package.

Key words: time series analysis, ARIMA model, intervention, modeling, rye price.

Małgorzata Szczepanik
Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Life Sciences, Lublin, Poland
Głęboka 28
20-950 Lublin
Poland
email: malgorzata.szczepanik@up.lublin.pl

Dorota Domagała
Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Life Sciences, Lublin, Poland
Głęboka 28
20-950 Lublin
Poland

Responses to this article, comments are invited and should be submitted within three months of the publication of the article. If accepted for publication, they will be published in the chapter headed 'Discussions' and hyperlinked to the article.