Electronic Journal of Polish Agricultural Universities (EJPAU) founded by all Polish Agriculture Universities presents original papers and review articles relevant to all aspects of agricultural sciences. It is target for persons working both in science and industry,regulatory agencies or teaching in agricultural sector. Covered by IFIS Publishing (Food Science and Technology Abstracts), ELSEVIER Science - Food Science and Technology Program, CAS USA (Chemical Abstracts), CABI Publishing UK and ALPSP (Association of Learned and Professional Society Publisher - full membership). Presented in the Master List of Thomson ISI.

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Ojo E. , Olayinka M. 2019. EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT IN NIGERIA
DOI:10.30825/5.ejpau.181.2019.22.4, EJPAU 22(4/volume22), #04.
Available Online: http://www.ejpau.media.pl/volume22/issue4/volume22/abs-04.html

ABSTRACT

Nigeria has been a nation seeking to step-up economic growth and development particularly since the end of the civil war but this appears to have proved too difficult. Agriculture has been earmarked as a key sector to cause faster growth through sufficient food production. However, the output supply from the sector to the domestic economy has been inadequate, leading to massive food importation. This study examined the effect of macroeconomic variables on agricultural output in Nigeria spanning over 37 years, from 1981 to 2017. It is assumed that appropriate macroeconomic variables would serve as transmission channels to address the short comings in agricultural sector. To achieve the study specific objectives, the OLS method was employed as estimation technique. Error Correction Model was set for the short run effects. This was followed by the long run effect of macroeconomic variables on agricultural output in Nigeria. The Granger Causality Test was also carried out. The short run error correction term revealed a speedy adjustment process to long run equilibrium. There was evidence of long run relationship between macroeconomic variables set for this study and agricultural output. The major findings revealed that in the long run, government support in form of microcredit was an essential factor in agricultural development in Nigeria. Exchange rate was also found to be significant in determining agricultural output growth. It is suggested that government should increase its financial support to agriculture and that the stability of the exchange rate should be taken seriously by the apex bank.

Key words: Macroeconomic Policy, Agricultural Output, Cointegration, Error Correction Model, Exchange Rate, Nigeria.

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Enoma Ojo
Department of Economics, University of Lagos, Nigeria

email: enomaojo@gmail.com

Musa Samuel Olayinka
Department of Economics, University of Lagos, Nigeria

email: olayinksam@yahoo.com

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Responses to this article, comments are invited and should be submitted within three months of the publication of the article. If accepted for publication, they will be published in the chapter headed 'Discussions' and hyperlinked to the article.

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